A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
